The key to the severity of impacts in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico from strengthening Erin depends on how soon a turn to the northwest occurs with a near-miss versus a direct hit.

Tropical Storm Erin is tracking quickly westward through the open Atlantic waters and should become increasingly organized in the coming days, potentially reaching major hurricane intensity this weekend as it tracks just north of the Caribbean islands, where it could bring rain and gusty winds.

The NHC forecast advisory predicts Erin will continue westward today before bending west‑northwest tonight and through the weekend as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge. Forecast positions show the storm moving from 16.