Real economic growth in the United States contracted 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025. Although that's an initial estimate, that's a remarkable development because it comes in the middle of a period ...

In the past three months, economists have changed their outlook for the U.S. to slower growth, higher inflation and greater risk of recession. The changed consensus in The Wall Street Journal’s ...

The U.S. economy faces an “uncomfortably high” 48% probability of slipping into a recession within the next 12 months, according to Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics. Zandi shared this ...

The U.S. faces a 90% probability of entering a recession in 2025 unless current trade policies change, according to Apollo economists. This warning stems from simultaneous negotiations with 90 ...

The Israel-Iran conflict raises concerns over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs and other banks warn of recession risks if global oil supply is disrupted. Higher oil prices ...

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There are certain words you don’t want to hear in a medical checkup or in an investment bank’s recession outlook: “stable but elevated.” It’s a phrase that could refer to blood pressure, even risk of ...