The intensification of compound hot-dry events due to climate change is a pressing concern, underscoring the need for precise analysis. However, the impact of different dry indicators on projections ...

Society has often been surprised by the magnitude by which recent climate extremes exceeded previous observed records, such as during the extreme rainfall of Hurricane Harvey 1,2,3, the 2020 warm ...

Welcome to my new blog here on Forbes.com. Over the new few months I’m going to be talking about a couple of quite disparate but fascinating areas: book publishing and high-impact low-probability ...

Subjective Probability In the course of their daily lives men must constantly measure the probability of events. How these personal judgements conform to the actual laws of probability is investigated ...