Today we continue our study of the historical cycles suggesting a major crisis is in our near-term (5‒8 years) future. We don’t know the precise timing or nature of the crisis, but the patterns ...

Last week I published a Salon review of Peter Turchin's new book, "End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration," which I have described as the most comprehensive ...

The day Donald Trump was arraigned for unauthorized possession of national security documents — heightening his party’s attacks on the nation’s justice system — also saw the publication of Peter ...

Historian Peter Turchin predicted in 2012 that widespread violence would erupt worldwide sometime around the year 2020. His prediction was based on an area of research known as cliodynamics. Editor’s ...

Why is American democracy in a state of crisis — one that almost no one saw coming? And how can we escape it? At least some of the answers can be found in a new book by someone who did see it coming, ...

Are there larger forces at work producing the political, social and economic unrest in 2020? Peter Turchin, a quantitative historian at the University of Connecticut, thinks so. Turchin first ...